Still On Track For Playoffs

I was not able to watch the Hornets game last night, so I can’t comment too much on it. Sounded like the Hornets just hit some big, tough shots in the 4th quarter.

Anyway, in my State of the Blazers Address post, I said that to have a chance at playoffs, we need to play 60% ball for the second half of the season. This means winning 3 out of every 5 games. It is now 5 games into the second half of the season, and we have won 3 games. Right On Track!

The next 5 games though, will be tough… we play Denver twice, then Chicago, Phoenix then Charlotte. The Denver games are HUGE division games, and come at a critical time in the season. We should be able to beat Charlotte and maybe Chicago too. Anyway, we need to win 3 out of 5 of these games.

There were already a couple reader comments on my last post about a rumored trade: Pau Gasol for Jamaal Magloire, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Sergio Rodriguez. Let me just state the obvious. For the Blazers, trading LaMarcus Aldridge is probably a bad idea. ANY trade involving Sergio Rodriguez is a HORRIBLE idea. I wonder how hard Blazer GM Steve Patterson was laughing when Jerry West made this offer. Um, I hope Patterson was laughing.

Two big games against Denver coming up. Can Allen Iverson and Carmelo co-exist? They did lose to Charlotte yesterday, with Melo shooting 11-26. Will Steve Blake go for 30 points this time? Will Sergio go for 30? Will Martell Webster finally play good (Travis will be back any day)?

I can’t wait to find out…

-Blase31

(Grizzlies Game) Credit Where Credit Is Due

I know, I know. My last posting was pretty critical, so I will now follow it up with a more up-beat optimistic post. Blazers win in double overtime!!!!

I must give credit where credit is due. Zach Randolph and Brandon Roy really carried the team late in this game.

This huge 42 point outburst by Zach came at the perfect time for him. The coaches will vote soon for the All-Star game reserves. I’m sure most coaches were seriously considering voting for Randolph, but leaning towards not giving him their vote. But, with this 42-point performance, all the coaches will have to reconsider giving him their vote. (Hopefully they can overlook the fact that it was a double overtime game with the worst team in the west, and the fact that he was only 16-40 on field-goals.)

Ultimately, I do not think he will make it to the All-Star team, but he will come close. He did earn it! It will be too bad if (when) he doesn’t make it because this will probably be his only real chance. His numbers are destined to decline as the Blazers further adopt the up-tempo style. That is, unless Zach can adapt.

Overall, this is a great road-win for the Blazers. It does show some character being that they came off a 30-point loss the night before. Tomorrow we play the Hornets… a team with a very similar record as ours. We need a convincing win by our Blazers to prove that we are now much better than our record shows. Go Blazers!

-Blase31

P.S. Look at that, an entire post without mentioning Sergio Rodriguez (or his 7 assists & no turnovers in 18 minutes) a single time.

(Rockets Game) Same Story, Different Game

Ouch… this game hurt. But, I guess at least we have an excuse: they had to cancel Thursday’s practice.

You could say we got T-Mac’d in the third quarter… but the Blazers are equally at fault as they only scored 14 points in that quarter. Was the Rocket defense really that bad?

Nate McMillan is also not to blame. In the third quarter, when the Rockets were pulling away, Nate continued his stubborn ways. He was right in that he needed to substitute Jarret Jack at point-guard. But his error was that he moved Brandon Roy to the point-guard spot instead of the obviously correct choice of Sergio Rodriguez. When Roy moved to point guard, Blazers were down 13… by the end of the third we wouldn’t score again and were now down by 20.

Sergio finally entered the game when we were already down by 20 points. Now Sergio can definitely work with a 13 point deficit, or maybe even 15 points. But 20 points is asking a little too much for the rookie.

This same story has repeated so many times. Nate McMillan stubbornly refuses to put Sergio Rodriguez in the game and makes his team, and the fans, pay the price.

On the bright side, we did get to see Raef LaFrentz and Dan Dickau play again. And we got a good and strong reminder of why they are not in the Blazers rotation.

Now, I this was a bad loss for the Blazers, but I think it was just a hick-up, or growing pains if you will. The Blazers need to just learn from their mistakes and move on from here.

Go Blazers,

-Blase31

State of the Blazers Address

President Bush gave his State of the Union Address today, so I thought I would take this opportunity to provide my State of the Blazers Address.

It is now half way through the season and the Trail Blazers are 17-25, just over 40%. We do still have a chance at the playoffs if we play some exceptional basketball for the rest of the season. I believe the Blazers just need to keep playing the attacking, fast-paced, (Sergio-based) style that we’ve seen in the last couple of games.

Playoff chances
In my 2007 Predictions I predicted that the Blazers would make the playoffs this year, and I think it is still possible. We need to play 60% ball, meaning we win 3 out of every 5 games (streaks of 3). The key is to win our division games!

People often ask why I think division games are so important. Division games are important because you play teams in your division so many more times… and in context of the playoff race, you go up a notch, but also, they go down a notch. Just look at the standings: With the exception of Detroit, the top 8 teams in each conference have winning records against teams in their division. All other teams have losing division records. This means we have 3 BIG GAMES coming up in the upcoming weeks: tomorrow against Minnesota, and next week when we play Denver twice.

Up-tempo vs Plodding
The biggest story-line for the Blazers right now is whether Coach Nate McMillan can adapt and develop a more fast-paced style. As the story goes…when Jack got hurt, Nate was forced to play Sergio Rodriguez. Sergio gave us a glimpse into the future. Sergio, somewhat defiantly, pushed the ball on every play, and delivered the ball to open guys. The rest of the team fed off of this and played some great basketball. We unselfishly passed the ball, we shot (and made) open shots, we attacked the rim, we played defense. Playing this open style finally let our young players finally use all that talent and potential that we’ve been told that we acquired.

With our personnel, an upbeat offense that pushes the ball just makes sense. I think everyone in Portland agrees. It’s funny, because ever since Nate became coach, we’ve had to listen to him constantly preach about slowing down the game, controlling the tempo, and insist that we don’t have the personnel to play an up-tempo game. Well, anyone that watched the Sacramento game saw the exact opposite.

I do think Nate McMillan is a good coach, but he cannot let his pride get the best of him or his team. If Nate continues to insist on playing a slow, plodding offense, and we do not do any better in the second half of the season, the fans will turn on him.

Talent-wise
A related storyline has to do with who fits into the future of our Blazers. In other words, the immense talent and potential of certain players is starting to overshadow other so-called ‘key’ players. Let me explain… at the beginning of this season, the Blazer media machine tried hard to make prop up Zach, Jack, and Outlaw as the main pieces of the puzzle. Nate backed this up by basically running the offense around those guys.

But as the season went on, certain players have emerged from the folds to show an almost unbelievable potential. These players are Sergio, Roy, Webster, and even LaMarcus Aldridge. They all have real talent, but even scarier, they have what seems to be unlimited potential. This combination of talent and potential just overpowers anything that a Zach, Jack, or Outlaw could ever provide. This trio is not essential to our team. The sooner Nate and Blazers management realize this, the sooner we can get on with developing a contending team.

The rest of this season rests soley on Nate McMillan’s shoulders. He has the power and influence to decide how his team will play (and trade). So the question from here on out is: Can Nate swallow his pride and let his players play the up-tempo basketball that everyone knows they should?

I can't wait to hear your comments...

-Blase31 (blazerstruth@gmail.com)

(Cavs Game) LeBron who?

Another outstanding game by our Trail Blazers. I love when the Rose Garden is packed, even if all those people showed up to watch the other team.

The Cavs were led by some guy named LeBron Something-rather that must think he is an All-Star because they called the play for him almost every single possession. But Ime Udoka was able to contain the LeBron guy who shot an impressive 8-21 for field goals, 6-13 on free throws, and also had 4 turnovers. All this of course led to my girlfriend to ask “I thought you said LeBron James is supposed be good?”

And again, like in the last 3 games, Sergio Rodriguez was the catalyst. The last 3 games, the Blazers have been playing a much different style of basketball. And as a result, they finally actually look like a good team, and are very fun to watch (even when we lose). They even get fast break points! The players look like they’re having fun too, which in turn makes them work harder on defense, and move the ball more on offense. Heck, even Zach seems to be having fun, and is working harder because of it.

We play Phoenix on Friday, and Jarrett Jack should be back. It is going to be real interesting how Nate decides to divvy up the point guard minutes. I think for a lot of fans, his reputation is on the line.

(Kings & Nuggets Game): Sergio!

Wa-hoo! These were two of the most entertaining games I’ve watched in a while, for one reason… Sergio Rodriguez. Sergio put on a clinic in the Nuggets game. And the Blazers finally looked like a good team when he was in (but horrible when he was out).

This of course means that Nate McMillan’s worst nightmare has come true. Over the last couple months Nate has tried everything to squeeze Sergio out of the rotation. Seriously, Nate tried everything: he tried playing Jarrett Jack whole games, he tried moving Brandon Roy to point guard, he tried going to a three-guard rotation. And when Jarrett went down, he decides to start Dan Dickau!&$#?

The Nugget’s game was quite comedic in this regard. The first unit could not do anything in the first quarter, then Nate put Sergio in and we score 37 points in the second quarter. Nate of course wrote this off as a fluke, and started Dan Dickau for the second half and before we knew it, Denver goes on an 11-0 run in 4 minutes. Nate, reluctantly, has to put Sergio back in… and can’t take him out (though the look on Nate’s face was that he wanted to). The post-game interview (which you can view on blazers.com) was pretty funny too. Nate McMillan just seemed uncomfortable talking about Sergio’s amazing performance.

Don’t get me wrong. I love Nate, and I think he is a great coach. But some of his recent coaching decisions have been a bit baffling. Does he not see the immense talent and potential that Sergio Rodriguez has? Possibly the most of anybody on this team.

Nate should be cultivating this guy as the future of the Blazers. Sergio is going to be a star in this league, and hopefully it is in a Blazer’s uniform. It’ll be interesting if Nike, Addidas, or Reebok snap Sergio up in an exclusive deal anytime soon, because this kid is very marketable.

We’ll see in the next game how stubborn Nate McMillan is, or if he will allow himself to adapt to the talents his team has. All I know is that if we are going to lose, I’d rather do it with Sergio at the helm.

(Mavs Game) Same as yesterday

My thoughts on this game are the same as for yesterday's game. Please just refer to yesterdays post.

(Spurs Game) A Single Note

I will only say one thing in my analysis: Sergio Rodriguez did not play (except for 3 minutes of garbage time). Blazers Lose. Coincidence?

Nate, WAKE UP! At least give yourself a chance to win. Play Sergio!

Oregonlive.com has an interesting piece on Rotation. I must say it's a bit disturbing to hear Nate McMillan talk about who he thinks should (and shouldn't) play, and why.

Trust me Nate, Sergio is not the problem. And tightening up the guards to three players is not the solution. There are a few other glaring problems you need to address first.

All I'm saying is that not playing Sergio doesn't seem to be working, maybe we should try doing the opposite.

-Blase31

Heat Game: Brandon Roy is Really Good

I just got back from the Heat game. And even though we lost, it was easily the most entertaining game I've attended this year. Blazers played 36 minutes of awesome basketball, Dwayne Wade showed why he is second in all-star voting, and Blaze even did a front-flip dunk! But all this just made the Blazer's losing effort hurt even worse.

I did, however, come away with one realization: Brandon Roy is really good. Up until this game, I hadn't really jumped on the Roy bandwagon. I mean, I knew he was good, but not this good. He scored his 18 points with ease... and without going to the free-throw line a single time. Once Brandon starts to get some respect from the referees... watch out. If he just works on his shot selection a bit, he will easily be a 25 point a night scorer.

Brandon Roy becoming the 25+ scorer that he is destined to be, will cause an interesting situation between Roy and Randolph. As you may have read in my 2007 predictions post, there is just not room for two 25+ scorers on the same NBA team. And from what I saw tonight, Brandon Roy will beat out Zach Randolph as the team’s first option by the end of the year.

Remember how the Miami Heat became a force when Shaq turned the team over to Wade. Well, the same needs to happen here in Portland. But Zach is too immature to turn the team over to Roy. This will cause a big problem when Roy ultimately surpasses Zach‘s scoring numbers. I predict Zach will lose all his drive and will be crying (and probably be asking for a trade) by the end of the season. (More on this in a later post).

Oh, and by the way, Coach Nate still hasn’t played Brandon Roy with Sergio Rodriguez on the floor at the same time. Won’t that be interesting! Maybe Nate thinks the fans just aren’t ready for that just yet.

-Blase31

Martell “Future” Webster: Your Time Is Now

As you probably have heard, Travis Outlaw is out for 10-14 days with a sprained ankle. This is sad. But it may also be a blessing in disguise! Now is Martell’s chance to emerge as a force for the Blazers.

In my circles, we nickname Martell the “Future”. It is fitting because he is definitely not “the present” but has so much potential that he is destined to be great. Seriously, Martell just oozes potential. He will be a star.

Why is Martell not living up to the hype right now? I can only put some blame on the Blazers’ coaching staff. The coaches must tell him: “just go stand in the corner behind the 3-point line and wait for the ball… if you get bored then run over to the other corner.” It’s pretty ridiculous.

So, Martell, if you’re reading this:

Dear Martell,
You obviously think that you are a spot-up 3-point shooter. Sorry to tell you, but spot-up 3-point shooters do not become great in this league. Old players are 3-point shooters, white players are 3-point shooters, short players are 3-point shooters. Martell, you are none of these! If you live by the three, you will die by the three.

Martell, you are definitely blessed with a sweet shoot, but also with some athletic ability and an NBA body. You should be breaking down defenders, drawing fouls, dunking over people! Drawing the defense and kicking it out for the assist. Then when they finally back off you hit them with that deadly 3.

Kobe is your favorite player… you should be playing just like him. Be confident, aggressive, and even a little arrogant.

And now, with Travis out of the lineup, The Blazers need someone to step-up. That person is you Martell! 10-14 days Martell. This may be one of your last chances.

-blase31

As you can tell, I am real high on Martell “Future” Webster. I am also real high on Sergio. I am real excited for this weekend’s games as Nate McMillan begins his “shake-up”. If he gets real minutes, I am sure Sergio will emerge as a force. Nate will start to look foolish if he keeps sitting Sergio on the bench.

Go Blazers!

Did we really lose to the Knicks??

Well, I've already blown one of my predictions... the Blazers lost to the Knicks. Which doesn't help my Blazers will make the playoffs prediction at all.

Since I couldn't make it to last night's game, and it wasn't televised, I have enlisted a guest blogger, BlazerJay. BlazerJay did attend the game, and here are his thoughts...great stuff.

BlazerJay:"I was anticipating a good old whooping by the Blazers, you know, since they were playing the Knicks. And since all of the Blazers said they going through an attitude adjustment of working hard and getting back to the 5-game win streak Blazers.

They started out by posting Zach, but he got double-teamed then threw it right to Jamal Crawford which led to a fast break dunk. Then they posted him again, and this time he tried to hit Jarret Jack cutting to the hoop, but he threw it to another Knick. He did this three times in a row. One time even trying to pass to Joel, who passes to Joel anyways? That’s why I equate Zach to one of those players that you just let him shoot over double and triple teams (You know the type, “Steve” players) because a turnover that leads to a dunk is worse than a bad shot, at least the shot might go in.

The Blazers actually played a decent first quarter, they kept feeding Zach the ball, and he was able to make a bunch of outside fade-aways off one leg. That’s how he shoots even in warm ups now. But defensively, they couldn’t stop Jamal Crawford and Eddy Curry. But the game was close, and everything should be good, because the second quarter means Sergio’s coming in.

But the second quarter started, and no Sergio, this time Jack came back at point guard. By halftime they were already down by 11. The third quarter was worse. The Knicks just outworked the Blazers. David Lee got every rebound, Eddy Curry was dunking, and Marbury was hitting threes. It got so bad the crowd was booing and asking to substitute all 5 starters, and asked to put in Todd, yes, that guy who runs around the stadium with Blaze.

Sergio and Lamarcus finally came in the Blazers were down by 20 entering the fourth. The fourth quarter lineup that included Sergio, Lamarcus, and Martell actually played pretty good, cutting the lead down to 12 with Sergio pushing the ball down the court on every possession. But with a chance to cut the lead further, Martell took an alley-oop from Sergio and dunked it in between the rim and the backboard, and got it stuck. The Blazers never really recovered from there, and ended up losing 81-99."

2007 Predictions

As promised in my last post, here are my predictions for the Blazers (and the Nuggets) in 2007. If I get 4 out of 5 right I’m going to call it a success.

1. Brandon Roy will be named Rookie of the Year: Barring injury of course. (I am still kind of worried about him not having surgery on his foot.) I know this prediction is kind of weak, so onto a more bold prediction...

2. Blazers will make the playoffs: I actually made this prediction before the last 3 losses, but I’m sticking to it.

3. Travis Outlaw will not be a Blazer come Dec 31, 2007: I do not understand the sudden fan support for Travis, but he is a failed project. He is doing OK right now, but we all know who the real Outlaw is, and so does the Blazer’s management. There is no way Steve Patterson would re-sign him for any real money. So I believe he will either be traded to some unsuspecting team that thinks he still has potential, or he will sign with another team this summer.

4. Either Iverson or Carmelo will not be a Nugget come Dec 31, 2007: Denver simply saw an offer they couldn’t refuse and took advantage of a desperate 76’ers team. Miller and J.R Smith for Iverson… a no-brainer! But there is just no room for two proven 30 point scorers on the same NBA team. Denver will have to make another big move sometime this year.

5. Blazers will beat the Knicks tomorrow: We can’t lose to the Knicks… can we? Nate must realize that he has to change up the rotations: play Sergio and Joel more, and play Maglore and Jack less. This should lead to a Blazers win.

New Year, New Blog

This New Year brings with it the birth of a new blog for Trail Blazer fans called: BlazersTruth! In this blog, I will attempt to sort through the plethora of biased opinions, articles, news, stats, etc, about our Trail Blazers to get to the truth… the Blazers Truth.

And who better to do it than one of the biggest Blazer fans in Portland! I live inside the Portland city limits, attend over half the games, been a fan my whole life, and have an extensive network of friend’s and family who are all Blazer fans as well. By tapping into this experience, and getting comments from the readers, I believe this blog can arrive at (or at least approach) a consistent Truth about our beloved Blazers.

Of course, from time to time, some will disagree with some of my “Truth"s but that is what this blog is all about: “Truth lies in the eye of the beholder”. I am hoping that this blog can spark some spirited conversation to gain some real insight, and unique perspective on our team. So please feel free to comment on my posts and/or provide your own “Truth"s. Please post a comment or email me at my new G-mail account… blazerstruth@gmail.com

I actually just got back from the Blazers vs Celtics game. A very heart-breaking and disappointing loss. The Blazers really need to learn how to play with Brandon Roy (or vice-versa?).

Anyway, later this week I will publish my predictions for 2007. I also plan to write about Sergio’s talents, Martell “The Future” Webster, and maybe break down a few games.

I am very excited for the Trail Blazers in 2007! The last couple of years have been tough. The last 3 games (all losses) have been tough. But as I always say, “Without the bitter… the sweet ain’t as sweet”. I think this year will be sweet!